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posticon PET THEORY BEING PROVEN ????


This is a link to the original thread started by Frank on this topic in July of 2007,
which is now archived in our MSN Database at Multiply.com

http://envirows.multiply.com/journal/item/2/Pet_theory_being_proven_

The conversation will continue here.





Last edited by AgnesW, 6/4/2009, 9:43 am
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Re: PET THEORY BEING PROVEN ????


Hi Agnes,
 
Thanks a million for getting that long thread up 'n running again.
I will begin posting soon.

Last edited by AgnesW, 6/4/2009, 9:44 am
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Re: PET THEORY BEING PROVEN ????


Frank,
You might want to start with the brush fires in Australia. Heres a good beginning.
A post from realscience.

Brushfires and Climate


Last edited by AgnesW, 6/4/2009, 9:45 am
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Re: PET THEORY BEING PROVEN ????


Floods and drought in Brazil point to climate change: president

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Floods_and_drought_in_Brazil_point_to_climate_change_president_999.html
5/14/2009, 11:06 am Link to this post   Blog
 
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Re: PET THEORY BEING PROVEN ????


Climate Change and the Risk of Conflict in the Middle East

Climate models are predicting a hotter, drier and less predictable
climate in the Middle East—a region already considered the world's
most water-scarce and where, in many places, demand for water already
outstrips supply. For Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Israel and the occupied
Palestinian territory, climate change threatens to reduce the availability
of scarce water resources, increase food insecurity, hinder economic
growth and lead to large-scale population movements. This could hold
serious implications for peace in the region.
Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk
of violent conflict in the Middle East is the latest IISD report on the links
between climate change, peace and conflict. Drawn from extensive consultations
and workshops throughout the region, augmented by desk research, the report
makes three key points:

to continue reading follow the link:

http://www.iisd.org/publications/pub.aspx?pno=1130




Last edited by AgnesW, 6/4/2009, 9:42 am
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Re: PET THEORY BEING PROVEN ????


http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=1708440
 
    End of the world (as we know it)? Massive drought in prairie Canada affecting grain and hay (cattle fodder) production.
 
    Well, maybe not the end of the world but perhaps a sign - yet another! - of hard times ahead..
 
    In reality, as "critics" of GW like to point out, Alberta province naturally experiences periods of drought. What the "critics" choose to ignore is that GW is a perturbing factor which can force the regional climate system across a tipping point into a prolonged drought period like that of the Dirty Thirties "Dust Bowl". In addition glacial melt provides Alberta with much of its (precious!) water for domestic consumption, agriculture and industry. GW accelerates glacial meltoff thus reducing future water reserves while provincial water requirements are rapidly growing due to:

- rising human population

- rising per capita water consumption with rising per capita affluence

- increased industrial water use as affluence rises

- increased agricultural, livestock consumption as population rises

- OIL SANDS REFINERIES. The transformation of heavy oil sands to provide fuel for US SUVs consumes humungous quantities of water (much more so than conventional "light" petroleum extraction / refining)
 
Thus one is left with the conclusion that Alberta is shooting itself in the foot by establishing a suicidal positive feedback loop. Increased oil sands refining directly releases massive quantities of CO2 in the air. Ditto for the fuel produced from the oil sands when burned in US SUVs. The resulting GW increases glacial meltoff which reduces essential water supplies for the province (including the oil sands refineries themselves! That's REALLY shooting yourself in the foot emoticon )
 
     In addition, GW PROBABLY increases the likelihood of drought conditions in Alberta, further reducing water supplies.
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Re: PET THEORY BEING PROVEN ????


China is in a somewhat similar predicament. The Himalayas(Tibet)are melting at a very rapid pace. Rivers and lakes are overflowing from the melt water. As the glaciers disappear, the rivers which provide almost all of China with its drinking and irrigation waters will dry up.

Meanwhile desertification is in full swing in parts of China. Cattle are dying from lack of feed.

Comment: Theres a lot of talk by those who oppose any action to restrain GW, claiming that even if the U S does a full court press, China will just burn all the coal and oil it wants. My gut instinct tells me that China sees the handwriting on the wall and will take steps sooner rather than later to cut CO2 emissions.
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      At some level philosophy and psychology merge. Last night I was reading a text on Complexity theory / Self-Organizing Systems (SOS) by French sociologist / philosopher Edgar Morin: Introduction à la Pensée Complexe (Seuil, Paris, 2005). It was fascinating comparing his description of the general characteristics of SOS (living cell, organism, society, ecosystem..) with the dominant neocon psychology.

       SOS are defined by a BOUNDARY between the system and the environment. However, unlike the boundaries errected by reactionary psychology, this boundary is not one of restriction, exclusion and negation. Rather it is an ACTIVE frontier, within which the SOS defines itself and autoregulates it's internal processes and its exchanges with the environment in order to maintain its internal structural integrity in a world of fluctuations and perturbations. The boundary separating the SOS from the environment thus serves as a filter in ACTIVE EXCHANGES with the environment of matter / energy (food) and information (needed to effectively respond to environmental changes). Morin even emphasizes the point that the MORE EVOLVED (complex) a SOS is, the GREATER and MORE DIVERSE its exchanges with the exterior are.
 
       Our whole mind set today is based on - or at least biased by - the world view of "Cartesian" Science:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discourse_on_the_Method
 
(specifically, The Method of Science, The four precepts)
 
       While much of Descartes' thinking has been discarded over the last 350 years, his "method" is still the basis of "scientific methodology": break a problem down into its smallest understandable pieces. Then, by mentally "re-assembling" the problem from its understandable parts we will understand the whole problem: "the whole is the SUM OF ITS PARTS". As modern researchers into Complexity theory / SOS like Morin point out, this vision of reality is only PARTIALLY true. One of the ESSENTIAL FEATURES - a defining one! - of SOS is that they exhibit "emergent properties" (difficult if not impossible to predict from the behavior of the constituent parts).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-organization
 
for a fascinating (but technically difficult emoticon) application of Complexity theory /SOS to biological evolution:

http://mitpress.mit.edu/catalog/item/default.asp?ttype=2&tid=11165

       In order to survive and thrive in a world of complex self-organization (political and social systems, ecosystems, climate, earthquake fault zones..), we must RADICALLY DISCARD a one-sided, ideologically driven commitment to "Cartesian" Methodology. It is still useful, of course, for describing how PARTS of systems function but leads us rapidly into dangerous waters when we delude ourselves into thinking it can help us understand how COMPLEX WHOLES evolve over time. emoticon
 
       To me, contemporary reactionary thinking seems to represent a caricature of "Cartesian" thinking. It ignores emergent properties (not predictable from behavior of parts). It over-simplies ("black / white", "us / them", "Good versus Evil", the paranoid hypersimplification of "conspiracy theorists"..). It rejects nuance or multiple points of view (neoconservative "christians" oppose Einstein's theory of Relativity because it sounds too much like "moral relativity"..). Intelligent readers could extend the list..

      For example, GW deniers' "arguments" are rife with "Cartesian" over-simplifications. They, in good Cartesian fashion, assume that the climate system is "linear" in function: if you add a little CO2, the effect on temperature should be small. They have a hard time understanding the non-linearities of "tipping points": at a global temperature of say, 15 degree C, a small rise in CO2 will produce a small temperature rise but at a global temperature of 18 deg C, the same rise in CO2 will provoke a sudden planet wide shift into a new much hotter climate regime.

       They really emoticon seem to have a terrible time wrapping their heads around the idea that a global temperature rise should include local drops in average anual temperature (something which would be PREDICTED for a Self-Organizing climate system with active energy flows, energy storage, and feedbacks emoticon )
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Re: PET THEORY BEING PROVEN ????


Pet Theory: the main damage of Global Warming will not necessarily come from global overall temperature rise (except if it goes over 5 deg C, some experts claim all bets are off..). Rather, we claim

1- local and regional "extreme weather events" will clobber our corruption weakened economies with "nickle and dime" disaster recovery costs.

2- the disruption of traditional weather patterns will disrupt agriculture, triggering regional or global food shortages, geopolitical insability and the attendant high, terrible and tragic cost of "security" we have grown to know in recent years..

A preview of the future ??

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/bc-fire-crews-make-progress-as-temperatures-drop/article1242264/

85% of British Columbia province (Canada) is said to be in an elevated fire risk status, "unprecedented in BC history".

The BC government has called for international help. So far only Australia and New Zealand are sending in a few experienced fire fighters..

In the town of Lillooet, fire "exploded" over a mountain and down the valley toward town. Residents said they were given "1 minute" evacuation orders !!

This article shows how much fire is on these folks' minds

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/lillooet-a-ghost-town-as-hills-burn/article1241322/

One source cites fire related costs at $3 million (Cdn or US) per day! Some people have been evacuated several times this season, contributing to stress related health costs, mental health problems and their attendant social costs..

While a SINGLE freakish fire season does not a trend prove nor can it be definitely attributed to GW, the OVERALL GLOBAL TREND toward extreme weather over the last few decades is certainly alarming..

Fire problems on the Pacific Coast are exacerbated by lousy forestry management, dumb patterns of urban development and by climate change. The latter is causing an explosion in pine beetle populations since low winter temperatures kill off these pests. Beetle infestations kill pine forests which, in turn, has a pile of nasty - and COSTLY - effects: (partial list)

1- creates dead wood to fuel fires

2- decomposing forests release CO2 thereby amplifying the initial temperature rise (positive feedback)

3- devastates the forestry industry
 
4- sure doesn't help the tourist industry(!!)
 
5- degrades the Province's natural beauty (one of the reasons people move there..)

6- increases government expenditures (fire fighting, disaster relief..) while diminishing incomes from major industries (forestry, tourism..), a LOSE - LOSE situation!

The government text, link below, discusses the beetle's ecology:

http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/mountain_pine_beetle/bbbrochure.htm

This summer, eastern Canada is suffering from andexcess of Water and a lack of Fire: the summer is cloudy, wet and cool, sodden crops are attacked by mildew in Québec; much local flooding (and flood realated costs) in both Québec and Ontario..

The situation is reversed in western Canada which suffers from an excess of Fire and a lack of Water: BC's trial by fire and drought in Alberta and Saskatchewan..
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Re: PET THEORY BEING PROVEN ????


    Producing biofuels from insect damaged dead wood instead of destroyng forests to produce petroleum from tar sands seems like a much more realistic way to go to me.
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